Trumpism and the rise of right-wing extremism was widely rejected on Tuesday, where does that leave the progressive movement in the US and here in Canada?
An important factor in the US election that is under reported is candidate quality. Voters looked to candidate quality far more than the exit polling reflects since the polls tend to ask about issues and don’t ask the question about the candidates. This factor was starkly illustrated in Pennsylvania where the republican candidate in the governors race was shown to embrace racist and anti-Semitic views in addition to radical positions on election law, and crime. Mehmet Oz was hand picked by Trump to run for senate despite being a resident of New Jersey. Celebrity failed to overcome the solid experience and progressive views of John Fetterman despite Fetterman’s mid campaign health issues.
The record and a progressive, centre-left platform. People voted on issues that affect them and the exit polls reflect that. Women’s right to choose, guns and crime, local issues and the economy, the economy, the economy. It is critical going forward from the US elections of 2022 that the Progressives pay greater attention to the pain that rising interest rates, food prices, gas and heating prices are causing for the middle class in addition to the working poor and poor. This includes down ballot in state legislatures and municipal politics as well. Clear messaging and action on economic issues are critical to success in the 2024 US election cycle.
The Democrats are being called the winners in the 2022 election cycle because they were not decimated. While many races remain unsettled, they could still lose control of the senate and the house of representatives, crippling the Biden administration for the next two years. The Maga Republicans fell short of the huge victory they predicted but they have not gone away. Trump’s influence is blunted and he may destroy the Republican party before he relinquishes the stage, but he will not just go away.
Democrats need to take stock and come together on progressive policy that focuses on the economy and does not frighten the independent and swing voters. Find new and credible voices to speak to the voters where they are, Fox News and not play only on the home field. Recruit quality candidates and that means looking seriously at whether Biden should offer again in 2024.
What are the lessons for Canada?
We have a growing extremist right wing in Canada, some of the most prominent voices in the US right have Canadian origins. As long as they don’t break the law, they are free to spread their message and it resonates with people who feel shut out and ignored by the political elites in Canada. The rejection of Jean Charest by the Conservative Party in favour of Pierre Poilievre reflects that. Charest is a Progressive Conservative of the old school now no longer welcome in the party that Stephen Harper fashioned.
The Conservatives are attacking the Liberal Government focusing on Justin Trudeau and using his name in memes etc. The frontal attack is on the economy while they flank the Liberals in the culture wars. As the son of a former PM, Justin Trudeau is portrayed as the archetype of an elitist liberal. Born wealthy, privileged and out of touch with Canadians. Cancel culture is the nemesis of the broad coalition that made up the Liberal majority of 2015.
Now is the time for the Progressive movement in Canada to choose a range of policies that focuses on the economy for the middle class and those that aspire to join it. That is the route forward, failure to claim that ground now spells disaster. End the focus on the tiny micro-aggressions of the culture warriors and speak to the broader audience on the issues most important to their lives.
Our current government has a good record of providing support for business and people through the pandemic, own it but move on. The cornerstones that will decide upcoming federal, provincial and municipal elections are:
1. Quality candidates including new articulate voices.
2. The economy, inflation and carbon pricing.
3. A woman’s right to choose, we need to codify the status quo.
4. Healthcare writ large, the system is broken.
5. Taxation is a sleeper but Canadians in many parts of the country cannot afford more taxes at any level. Politicians need to recognize that while we have three levels of taxation there is only one taxpayer.